Baccarat Counting

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Baccarat Counting

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Baccarat Counting Video

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On the other hand, if a deck is missing more high card than low cards it swings the edge more in the favor of the house.

You simply start with a number, usually zero, and add to it whenever a low card is played and subtract from it whenever a high card is played.

When the count is positive it means the remaining cards have more high cards than low cards and when the count is negative it means the remaining cards have more low cards than high cards.

As it turns out, baccarat is also played with a deck of standard playing cards and the removal of certain cards does change the chances of which cards can still be dealt and this does slightly alter the house edge.

In blackjack, depending on the rules, you often need to consistently be able to play deep into the shoe. Baccarat games tend to play through the entire shoe or almost all of it, and I seems like it offers a good counting opportunity.

They even provide pencils and paper in some casinos so you can track results, etc. The absence of concern from the casinos is the first big clue that you might not be able to beat baccarat.

You can theoretically get an edge against the casino playing baccarat. In The Theory of Blackjack by Peter Griffin, an excellent book for potential card counters, he has a small section about counting baccarat.

Many popular blackjack counting systems only require you to add or subtract one at a time. A perfect baccarat counting system requires adding and subtracting large and varied number from the count, and to do it perfectly you actually need to keep at least two separate counts perfectly.

And you only make a bet when the count is in your favor, so according to some mathematicians you only place a bet on one out of every hands or more.

You also have to risk large amounts of money for miniscule returns, which is rarely a good idea. If you really want to find an alternative to counting blackjack, your best bet is to learn how to count Spanish 21, a derivative of blackjack.

The answer to this is included at the beginning of the last section. But a few players have been able to beat baccarat by using other tactics.

Card counting isn't a viable option in online casino games because the decks are shuffled after every hand, and card counting as a viable Baccarat strategy requires that a lot of the shoe is played out before the reshuffle.

Along these lines, you have to look to other ways of maximizing your chances of winning. The best Baccarat system to start with is based on knowing what the odds and average payouts are for all of the bets.

Basically, the banker bet has the best payout rate of You can also go with the player bet, and this has a payout rate of No matter what kind of Baccarat system you use, what's important is that you stay far away from the tie bet and the pair bets because they always have much higher house advantages than the banker or player bets.

A lot of people use a Baccarat strategy based on trying to anticipate bias in the deck. The general idea is that this can be achieved through tracking the past several hands to see what's due to win or what's on a winning or losing streak.

While it's hard to prove this with mathematics, a lot of people swear by this method. It's actually so popular of a strategy that land-based casinos often give out special pieces of paper with pencils to mark down a history of the hands to assist you in making decisions.

Table 1 gives the analysis for eight decks, with the house edge of 7. The key is that in order for the player to win the Dragon bet, the dealer has to draw a third card.

This requirement trumps everything else. The cards that keep the dealer from drawing that third card most often are the 8 and the 9. An excess of smaller cards is also helpful.

Determining which of these low cards result in a final total of 7 most often is the key. The methodology used in this study is familiar.

The overall house edge for the game dealt from eight decks is 7. By removing each card in turn from an eight-deck shoe, its effect on the house edge can be determined.

This allows card counting systems to be developed. After arriving at candidate systems, computer simulations are run to see if these systems can generate an edge in practice.

If there is an edge, the question then becomes if this is significant enough to become an opportunity for the advantage player. Table 2 shows the number of winning and losing hands that result from removing one card from an eight-deck shoe, along with the house edge after removing that card.

The reader will most likely consider it daunting to use system 1 in practice. However, as a baseline counting system, it is worthwhile to see how it performs.

In an effort to simplify this unwieldy system as much as possible, I also considered the card counting system with tags 0, 0, 0, -1, -1, -1, -1, 2, 2, 0.

To gauge the effectiveness of each, I wrote a computer program to simulate using these two systems in live play.

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